On Covid-19 in Italy — An updated view at the data from last week

Prediction from a week ago and actual figures for new deaths and percentage of new cases
The delay between confirming positive cases and reporting deaths
  1. More “mild” cases of illness were identified, which therefore had less probability to succumb to the virus. This could be due to a larger number of tests conducted
  2. Our hospitals found better ways to treat the serious cases, improving their chances of full recovery or at least keeping them alive for longer
  3. The method or the timing to calculate and report deaths caused by the virus, or new cases has changed
Total number of tests done in Italy — we highlight the week relevant from the past prediction, and the following 9 days, important for the prediction of mortality over the next period
Mortality Rate calculated on the same day (bottom line, with trend line) and calculated over the cases from the previous days (it is reasonable to expect that today’s deaths are a result of cases confirmed a few days ago, e.g. 9 days before)
Total number of patients in intensive care in Italy

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Andrea Ceccolini

Andrea Ceccolini

Software developer, passionate about science, maths, sports and people

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